The 2015 baseball season has begun! For the Mariners, the winter objective is to find a half-dozen more wins. Here’s my list of the Top Ten targets for Seattle. (Mind you, this team will only add 2 or 3 players, so rest assured at least 7 of these premonitions will be wrong.)
1) Victor Martinez – DH and occasional 1B
With new concerns over Miggy’s health, it’s unlikely the Tigers offer Victor Martinez a four-year contract. [My Tigers prediction: Porcello to Baltimore for Davis, V-Mart and Scherzer walk, while signing Shields.] There’s talk of the White Sox gunning for V-Mart as well, but I don’t see it. I see Seattle taking Martinez for 4/$60m, and if they’re smart, they avoid a no-trade clause.
2) Matt Kemp – DH and occasional RF
Kemp silenced his critics by bashing the crap out of baseballs last year. But his defense is pretty bad. For the Dodgers, this is unworkable. Simply Kemp’s defense neutralizes his offense, making his value to the team somewhere around net-zero. So while the Dodgers won’t want to part with Kemp’s righty power bat, they really should. It’s also believed that the Dodgers won’t pursue Hanley Ramirez, which means LA needs a shortstop. As the Mariners have two cheap young shortstops with 3-4 WAR potential (plus another prospect in the minors), I can see Kemp coming to Seattle with $30m paid on his contract, for Miller or Taylor and a bullpen arm.
3) Michael Cuddyer – DH and 1B Platoon
Many teams will stay away from Cuddyer, due to his injuries, age, and Coors Field stats. But for a player who can be signed for 2-3 years at around $10m AAV, Cuddyer is a good deal for the Mariners. His lifetime .347 OBP coupled with his righty power bat would be a nice pickup for Seattle if their budget is of concern. And with the Mariners as a contender the next few seasons, Cuddyer should be interested in coming here.
4) Alex Rios – RF Platoon and 4th Outfielder
Rios is an aging player who’s value is in question. He’ll likely sign for a short-term contract, around 1/$8m, with hopes of proving he’s still an above-replacement-value player. If Seattle were to sign Victor Martinez (which I view highly likely), Rios could be a fine complimentary piece for the 2015 roster.
5) Billy Butler – DH and occasional 1B
Like Rios, Bulter needs to prove he’s an above-replacement-level player. As a primary DH who only hit 9 homers in a full season last year, it’s hard to expect much from “Country Breakfast”. His OBP is good, and he puts the ball in play. He’s certainly not the solution to Lloyd McClendon’s desired “Big Bopper”, but could be a complimentary piece if the M’s find their Bopper elsewhere on the field. Butler should be cheap enough, perhaps 2/$12m with incentives, and could bounce back as a 2 WAR hitter.
6) Khris Davis – LF
The Brewers have way too many righty batters in their lineup. Davis has pop, but also swings at everything. Under team control until 2020, he could be a good fit for Seattle, batting in the 6th slot. A trade of Ackley or Saunders and perhaps a bullpen arm could get this done (and save Seattle some money).
7) Allen Craig – RF and 1B
What happened to Craig last season is sad. In 1500 previous MLB at-bats, Craig was a solid .800 OPS hitter. Then he imploded last year, producing a .594 OPS. While I don’t know enough about swing mechanics to make a judgment, I do know that his BABIP was unrealistically low in 2014. In fact, his BABIP was a solid .100 points below his career rate, and therefore his batting average was .100 points below his career numbers. Since Craig is signed for the next few years at a team friendly price— plus he bats right handed, and plays RF and 1B— I’d take a chance on him. As Boston is looking for pitching and left handed bats, one can imagine trade scenarios.
8) Chris Young – SP
While the Mariners don’t appear to want to pay much for another starting pitcher, we shouldn’t rule out the option of the M’s trading Taijuan Walker or Roenis Elias. (Of course, Walker isn’t going anywhere unless a big name is coming back.) But for Young, he’s a flyball pitcher who needs employment in a pitcher’s park. This limits his market, and if the Padres or likewise don’t make him an offer, he might be available to Seattle for cheap.
9) Torii Hunter – RF Platoon and 4th Outfielder
It’s kinda fun to imagine Victor Martinez, Austin Jackson, and Torii Hunter all playing for Seattle within one year of Lloyd McClendon becoming our skipper. Hunter would be on a short-term contract (1/$10m?), and with right handed pop and experience, he’s right up Seattle’s alley.
10) Giancarlo Stanton – RF
Oh no I didn’t! While the Marlins don’t wanna lose Stanton, he nonetheless has a ticking clock in Miami. Every day they don’t trade him, his return value goes down. My guess is that the Marlins try to contend this year, and if they’re not in it by July, Stanton becomes the blockbuster trade at deadline. So, would the Mariners clean out their farm for 1.5 years of Stanton? That’s a definite maybe. The Mariners will be serious contenders in 2015 and 2016, and a Cano-Stanton-Seager punch is what dreams are made of.
I know, I know.
Now, for the big names not on this list. Here’s why I left them off….
Nelson Cruz and Melky Cabrera: PED users that ownership doesn’t want to be involved with.
Yasmany Tomas: Too big a contract for an unproven player. Tomas will certainly go to a large market team with lots of payroll and a weak farm system.
Hanley Ramirez: Unless he agrees to become a DH, not worth his price tag for Seattle.
Scherzer, Lester, Shields: Sorry, we just aren’t signing any $20m pitchers.
###
Keep up with us on Twitter: @Seatown_Mariner
